Six months after Kemi Badenoch was elected as the leader of the British Conservative Party, internal discussions have turned to the possibility of replacing her.
As local elections in England approach, many conservative MPs and officials are increasingly dissatisfied with Badennock’s leadership and expressed concern that she is not the right person to lead the party in the next general election, which is scheduled to be held in 2029.
More than 20 sources who spoke to Bloomberg on anonymous terms said there is growing support within the party to replace Badenoch with right-wing shadow judicial secretary Robert Jenrick.
The dissatisfaction is due to the low number of votes from the Conservative Party and the view that the leader’s Badenoch failed to solve the key issues on November 2, 2024, which makes the party vulnerable to the challenge of Nigel Farage’s reform party. A Badenoch spokesman declined to comment on the situation, while a Jenrick spokesman pointed out that he expressed support for Badenoch’s leadership, suggesting that people should give her time.
With the upcoming local elections, the situation is expected to worsen and the Conservatives are expected to lose a large number of seats. The performance of the Conservative Party in these elections is crucial because they are seen as an early indicator of the party before the general election. The Conservatives won nearly half of the game in the last local election in 2021, with then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s successful Covid-19 vaccine rollout. But since then, the party’s popularity has plummeted and they are now facing their worst performance ever.
Political analysts predict that conservatives will be “completely eliminated” in the upcoming election, which Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, called it “an all and unlimited disaster.” After briefly surpassing the workforce in polls late last year, the Conservatives lagged behind labor and reform by five percentage points, which now became a powerful challenger to the right.
Some have assumed that Badenoch won’t prove herself until the summer of 2026, but some in the party now believe her leadership may be challenged soon. A senior party figure described her entering the “political death zone” and her future became a major topic of discussion between MPs and donors.
Badenoch inherited a daunting task when he succeeded Rishi Sunak in November 2023 after the Conservatives lost the election. Some defend Badenoch, believing that it takes time to rebuild the party after such a serious loss, but frustration is increasing. Critics claim she focuses on issues like net zero policy and transgender human rights, which they don’t think will cause voter priorities such as crime and immigration.
Badenoch’s performance on the Prime Minister’s issue has also attracted criticism. Her attempts to challenge Labor leader Keir Starmer are considered invalid, and Starmer often re-swap her attacks for the Conservatives’ own record. Meanwhile, Farage’s reform party has been steadily rising, which has complicated Badenoch’s position. Some MPs believe she is too right to attract centrist voters, but the right is not enough to compete with Farage’s populist appeal.
Jenrick has built a strong following on the rights of the Conservative Party and is increasingly seen as a potential replacement. He has attracted attention for his high-profile campaign on crime and state sovereignty, and a recent poll found that conservative members were much more satisfied than Badenoch. However, some centrist Conservatives are concerned that Jenrik will push the party to the right and potentially alienate voters from the center.
This situation is still smooth, with party numbers splitting in the case of whether changes in leadership will help conservatives recover or further alienate voters. Ultimately, local election results will be crucial in determining the future of Badennock, with political analysts showing that she may be able to sustain her leadership if the media narrative turns to the rise of Farage rather than the collapse of the Conservative Party.
