The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth to 3.0% in 2025, a 0.2 percentage point lower than the previous forecast of 3.2%. The downgrade is attributed to the decline in global crude oil prices, which remains an important driver of Nigeria’s economy.
The latest figures are published in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, which was released in Washington, D.C. at the IMF and the World Bank’s spring meeting. The report outlines global and regional economic trends and highlights the ongoing vulnerability among oil-dependent economies.
Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is also expected to show a moderate decline, with a forecast drop from 4.0% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund. However, a slight recovery is expected in 2026, with an estimated growth rate of 4.2%.
Nigeria is Africa’s largest economy and was picked out in the report because among the major economies where oil prices are falling. The IMF pointed out that the country’s 2026 growth forecast has also fallen by 0.3 percentage points.
The IMF further reports on economic challenges in other African countries. In South Africa, the 2025 growth forecast fell by 0.5 percentage points, and 0.3 percentage points in 2026. These revisions reflect the blandness of 2024, with increasing uncertainty, the impact of the growth of protectionist economic policies and the wider global speed, with weakening economic momentum.
In a more serious adjustment, the IMF cut South Sudan’s 2025 economic growth forecast by a staggering 31.5 percentage points. The sharp drop after the ongoing damage to large pipelines was associated with delays in the recovery of oil production, which greatly affected the country’s revenue and export capacity.
The IMF’s outlook emphasizes the continued risks posed by the vulnerability of economies to a large extent relying on natural resources and global market volatility.
